Bonds, A-Rod, Albert

Tim Kurkjian has this story on ESPN.com today concerning the waning exclusivity of the 500 HR club. This got me thinking about the 700 Club (no, not that one).

Barry Bonds will likely finish this season with around 760 career home runs. Whether he keeps going or not is a mystery, but I would wager that he will try to stick around for 2-3 more seasons. If he continues to average 20-25 homers a season over that time (well below his 42 per season average), he will finish up with about 800 for his career.

Alex Rodriguez seems poised to be the next person to break into the 700 homer club. He is 31 and is sitting on 478 for his career and is averaging 44 per season. He could easily play ten more years and, even if his average drops to 30 per season, he will still be at 800 by the time he is Barry's age.

Albert Pujols would appear to be the next in line. With 256 home runs by age 27, Albert should have no trouble amassing 200 more before he turns 32. In fact, his average will likely increase over the next 5 years, if he follows the career path of most of his contemporaries. Not since the Big Hurt of the mid-nineties have we seen such consistancy.

One more player that I would like to throw into this discussion is Ken Griffey, Jr. Junior has 567 career home runs and will turn 38 after this season ends. If he can play until he is 42 and can maintain a 25 homer a year average (not unimaginable), he will end up with just under 700 and could very likely sneak in.

The Vlad Guerreros and Andruw Joneses of the world will certainly end up in the Hall of Fame and will likely finish with remarkable totals. However, for these two to each hit 350 more home runs seems pretty unlikely. Manny (475 career, 42 average) and Thome (477 career, 41 average) are sitting on either side of 35, and while 700 is not out of the question for them, 225 more before age forty would be statistically improbable.

Regardless, what we are looking at here seems to be the natural evolution of the game. Evolution does not necessarily happen slowly. Many scientists argue that it happens in leaps and bounds. 700, not 600, will become the new 500 before we know it.