Iraq

Dear Friends,

I received this email from a friend of mine this morning:

Here is an article charting the erosion of one of the last viable justifications for the ongoing war in Iraq: isolation of Islamic terrorism to a specific region.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/28/world/middleeast/28exodus.html?pagewanted=1&hp

I'm sure you remember that Al' Qiada itself was initially composed of veterans of the Russian-Afghanee war. I fear that a similar thing is happening here. We may see an increase in terrorism for another generation.

Here was my response:

Great article. This is exactly what I was talking about the other day. A military withdrawal from the Middle East is the last thing we should be discussing. The war on terror is a real thing and something that we are going to have to continue contemplating for the next dozen years or more. 9/11 showed us the error of pacifism and complacency. More than any other war in which we've been involved, this is a war that will require the support of every one of us if it is going to be successful. My biggest criticism of the Democrats in this is how they have made this war into a partisan issue. Granted, Bush should have capitulated to them in some areas (Rumsfield should have been removed long before he was), but ultimately, they used this war for political leverage rather than simply trying to work towards a solution. The question should not be whether or not we ought to be involved, but rather, how can we most effectively fight the terrorists while protecting the people of the Middle East.

I started to look for some evidence to back up my claims. I found a pretty good excerpt from the
Peter Berkowitz article at opinionjournal.com:

Consider Iraq. The split among conservatives has widened since Saddam was toppled in the spring of 2003. Traditional realists continue to put their trust in containment, and reject nation-building on the grounds that we lack both a moral obligation and the requisite knowledge of Arabic, Iraqi culture and politics, and Islam. Supporters of the war still argue that, in an age of mega-terror, planting the seeds of liberty and democracy in the Muslim Middle East is a reasonable response to the poverty, illiteracy, authoritarianism, violence and religious fanaticism that plagues the region.

In contrast, Democrats today are nearly united in the belief that the invasion has been a fiasco and that we must withdraw promptly. Indeed, rare is the Democrat (Sen. Joe Lieberman was compelled to run as an Independent) who does not sound like a traditional realist denying both America's moral obligation to remain in Iraq and its capacity to bring order to the country.

The point here is that by limiting the ability of its members to one option, The Democratic Party is limiting the entire debate. Within the Republican Party, there is a great amount of debate (explore stkarnick.com for examples), covering every aspect of the issue. Bush is not without blame in this. His inability to see things in terms other than black and white often cripples his ability to communicate diplomatically. When this war started, the consensus was that we needed to get involved militarily in Iraq. Bush insisted on defining that involvement on his terms, which was a mistake, but what the opposition did was take the easy way out and rather than try to promote their own plan for the war, decided to endorse retreat. This short-sighted tactic will drastically limit the Democrats as they seek the White House in the fall. I envision three scenarios:

1. The Democratic candidate will not be elected. War Continues.

2. The Democratic candidate will be elected. Sticking to the party line, the new President will withdraw the troops creating a vacuum in the Middle East in which genocide and tyranny flourish and the President will lose the swing voters and be ousted after one term.

3. The Democratic candidate will be elected. Realizing the withdrawal is impossible, the war on terror will carry on and the President will lose his or her base and be ousted after one term.

Proper withdrawal from this war will take years, probably decades. However the invasion was justified is irrelevant. The feel like they were snookered into signing off on the war, and perhaps they were. For the sake of the party, and for the country, they must accept that withdrawal is not an option and work on a plan for making the most out of our situation.

I (and probably everyone in the country) have a great deal left to contemplate. My understanding of the intricacies of this situtation is constantly changing. I appreciate any comments or insights any of my readers can offer.

-LCC

Wow

http://www.monsterpig.com/

This is pretty remarkable. Thankfully, I'm able to remark.

A lot of folks have no idea what sort of freakish things we have roaming around down here. Where I grew up in Arkansas, the stories were all about catfish the size of Buicks. Seeing things like this pig make me think that maybe those stories are true. I spent a good deal of time in the Arkansas wilderness and I have no idea how I would have responded had I seen a creature like this coming towards me in the woods. Wow.

Article worth reading

Dear Friends,

A fairly optimistic article from an unlikely source: A British Paper. I assume the British are rarely optimistic but, perhaps, I do so wrongly. Furthermore, the article may not really be all that optimistic. It is a level-headed, "this-too-shall-pass" sort of thing, for which, I guess, the British are famously known. Whatever.

-LCC

On Education

Dear Friends,

I attended a high school graduation this weekend. Many of my former students were graduating and I thought it would be nice to see how they were doing and learn which colleges they were entering. It was a nice ceremony and I was proud to see how many of them were heading to colleges that met with my approval. The salutatorian (a fine classicist and delightful person) was heading to my alma mater.

I sometimes wonder if I was right to leave the comfort and security of the classroom. One of my greatest inspirations, however, a partner at a prominent firm here, is chairman of their board of trustees, and his presence was all the affirmation I needed. As an attorney, I can continue to have a significant impact on education in my community.

Below are two stories on education that I recently read and felt inclined to share:

The Black and White of Ho Culture details a story with which I can relate. I spent a year at a school that was 98% black. This school also had the largest SPED population in the school district and all of the children received free lunches. They often bragged about how their parents lied on their applications so that they would receive these free lunches, but I wonder, in hind-sight, how much of that was done for the sake of saving face. Needless to say, I was called almost every name in the book--"cracker" being the least offensive. That said, I was never called a "ho" and can only imagine how much more difficult it would have been to have been a woman in that environment. Unlike the woman in the story, I had a decent administration that would have backed me up had I ever felt abused by my students. Here is the full address in case the link doesn't work:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/05/the_black_and_white_of_ho_cult.html

This next article is about education in general and it's impact on economics. Our public education system needs to be drastically over-hauled. The biggest problem that I saw was a complete lack of accountability. My students did not fear failure or poverty. They had been poor their entire lives and seen very little else, nor have they had any reason to try to escape poverty. Let me stop now. I believe I am getting away from the article a little too much. Enjoy.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/05/tyler_cowen_why.html

Finally, here is a trivial wikipedia site for you to explore:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerica

-LCC

The $20,000 Luxury Car

Dear Friends,

Interesting story on the WSJ Law Blog. The government will pay back your law school loans if you take a job with the public defender's or prosecutor's office. If you want to ignore my rambling, read the analogy at the end.

I first heard about this on creditslips.org but was withholding judgement until I felt like it might actually happen. The commenters on the WSJ Law Blog are usually good for a laugh or two, but one of them makes the point that for law students who want to go into public service, this sort of thing could make that move a little easier. I seriously doubt anyone with the opportunity to work for a well-paying firm will pass that up to work for the government, but let's face it, not all of us will have the opportunity to work for a big firm.

I was teacher before I decided to start down this path. One of the primary motivators for me leaving teaching was the lack of earning potential. Most of the folks I know that make their careers teaching high-school are people who already have financial stability or who have limited options. While in many ways I am a privileged person, I do not have the ability to "do whatever I want," so for me, as much as I wanted to be a high-school teacher, I couldn't afford it. Better stated, they couldn't afford me. This problem clearly applies to the legal profession as well. The best students go into private practice leaving the government with slimmer pickings.

I really don't see this legislation solving that problem. If anything, it will allow folks who would have worked there anyway, the ability to do so more comfortably. For instance, even if I had worked for a school that offered to pay back my student loans, or even pay for me to get another degree, I still would have left. Money is the ultimate motivator, and only those who have it can afford to pay it no mind. Jobs that make money can afford to pay money, and the government will never be as profitable as the private realm. Well, clearly the government should not profitable. We would have a greater problem if it were.

Analogy time! This is like putting leather seats and a sunroof on a Hyundai. Those who can afford no better will appreciate the hint of luxury, but those who can buy BMW, still will.

-LCC

The deep breath...

Dear Friends,

I am quite a big fan of JRR Tolkien. My mother encouraged me to read the books when I was young. Recently, I was watching the Return of the King movie and felt, once again, moved by the exchange between Pippen and Gandalf in Minas Tirith. I feel like I am currently in the "deep breath before the plunge" stage.

My life is not very exciting. I enjoy my job because it gives me plenty of time to read (I am in the middle of East of Eden right now.), but there is little in the way of excitement. I am sure that I will covet times like these once school starts, but for now August cannot come soon enough.

I made the decision to go back to school over a year ago now. There was no way I could have applied and been ready last fall, but I stilll feel like I have wasted a great amount of time.

-LCC

Bonds, A-Rod, Albert

Tim Kurkjian has this story on ESPN.com today concerning the waning exclusivity of the 500 HR club. This got me thinking about the 700 Club (no, not that one).

Barry Bonds will likely finish this season with around 760 career home runs. Whether he keeps going or not is a mystery, but I would wager that he will try to stick around for 2-3 more seasons. If he continues to average 20-25 homers a season over that time (well below his 42 per season average), he will finish up with about 800 for his career.

Alex Rodriguez seems poised to be the next person to break into the 700 homer club. He is 31 and is sitting on 478 for his career and is averaging 44 per season. He could easily play ten more years and, even if his average drops to 30 per season, he will still be at 800 by the time he is Barry's age.

Albert Pujols would appear to be the next in line. With 256 home runs by age 27, Albert should have no trouble amassing 200 more before he turns 32. In fact, his average will likely increase over the next 5 years, if he follows the career path of most of his contemporaries. Not since the Big Hurt of the mid-nineties have we seen such consistancy.

One more player that I would like to throw into this discussion is Ken Griffey, Jr. Junior has 567 career home runs and will turn 38 after this season ends. If he can play until he is 42 and can maintain a 25 homer a year average (not unimaginable), he will end up with just under 700 and could very likely sneak in.

The Vlad Guerreros and Andruw Joneses of the world will certainly end up in the Hall of Fame and will likely finish with remarkable totals. However, for these two to each hit 350 more home runs seems pretty unlikely. Manny (475 career, 42 average) and Thome (477 career, 41 average) are sitting on either side of 35, and while 700 is not out of the question for them, 225 more before age forty would be statistically improbable.

Regardless, what we are looking at here seems to be the natural evolution of the game. Evolution does not necessarily happen slowly. Many scientists argue that it happens in leaps and bounds. 700, not 600, will become the new 500 before we know it.

Not a question of imminence.

Dear Friends,

I have found few admirable qualities in George Tenet. The recent media spotlight on him has revealed him to be self-serving and insincere. That said, I pulled a great quote from his book off of realclearpolitics.com this morning regarding the nation's attitude towards terror.

"It was never a question of a known, imminent threat; it was about an unwillingness to risk surprise."

Exactly.

-LCC

Presidential Hopefuls

Dear Friends,

Bold prediction time:

When the smoke clears and the dust settles, two candidates will be left standing. Our next president will be either Fred Thompson or Al Gore. Both will run. Both will be nominated. My prediction will not go any farther than that.

-LCC

The People

Dear Friends,

This morning, a colleague and I were having a conversation about Alexander Hamilton, that led to a discussion about the role that "compassion for the masses" plays on the platforms of the two parties. The public perception is that the Democratic Party is that one which holds the most compassion for the common man, while the Republican Party is considered to hold a more utilitarian consideration for individuals. The Federalist Party of the late 18th and early 19th centuries was, for the most part, the precursor to what we now consider the Republican Party. The men most associated with that party, John Adams and Alexander Hamilton, shared a similar attitude toward the populace that Adams articulated nicely in this statement: "Popularity was never my mistress, nor was I ever or shall I ever be a popular man. ... But one thing I know: a man must be sensible of the errors of the people and upon his guard against them and must run the risk of their displeasure sometimes or he will never do them any good in the long run (Chernow. Alexander Hamilton. 521.)." There is a certain amount of audacity present in this statement that modern politicians would be wise to avoid, but not because of any error in the statement, rather because of its accuracy.

-LCC

More on The Republican Party and Iraq

Dear Friends,

Excuse the brevity of this post. This is from ibdeditorials.com; it is a response to the Buckley post below.

-LCC